Strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies
The risk that the first Fed rate increase may be only one year away now will make currency markets particularly sensitive to a faster rebound in US data over the next couple of months. Already several releases suggest America's economy is picking up as the weather improves. One strong employment report now is likely to push the dollar sharply higher as investors would anticipate the Fed ending its current round of asset purchases well before the end of the year and potentially becoming the first major central bank to start raising interest rates early next year.
This week's key points for currencies are:
- strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies
- advanced PMI, M3 data due in the Eurozone
- Japanese CPI key for yen in the week ahead
- falling UK inflation supports MPC doves, restrains Cable
- SNB forecasts suggest franc cap to stay for 2014 and 2015
- still too early to see a medium term AUDNZD base
- BoC Poloz keeps USDCAD a buy on dips"
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