TD Securities: WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK-EURUSD
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| eurusd daily |
" Last week, we noted that while the technical underpinnings of the EURUSD rally were strong, we felt uncomfortable with the market’s extended run higher amid some tentative signs of price weakness. The EUR nudged a little higher again early this week but the prior week’s highs held. The sharp sell off from Wednesday took the market below the 1.3820/30 support point we highlighted last week as possibly opening up the downside more significantly. Today’s consolidation may mean a modest bounce in the market early next week but gains are likely to remain relatively limited and a quick resumption in the short-term trend lower through 1.3775 will point to more losses in the days ahead. We spot support at 1.3725 (40-day MA) but a tumble from the effective range ceiling may mean a drop back to 1.34/1.35 in the next few weeks.
The turn lower in the weekly EURUSD chart looks a little more serious—the two things we highlighted as bear risks for EURUSD have been realized. Firstly, EURUSD is set to close the week back below major trend resistance at 1.3811 now. Secondly a big net loss this week forms the third leg of an “evening star” bear reversal. Weekly support at 1.3623 currently looks poised to be tested. "
The turn lower in the weekly EURUSD chart looks a little more serious—the two things we highlighted as bear risks for EURUSD have been realized. Firstly, EURUSD is set to close the week back below major trend resistance at 1.3811 now. Secondly a big net loss this week forms the third leg of an “evening star” bear reversal. Weekly support at 1.3623 currently looks poised to be tested. "
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| eurusd weekly |
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